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Crystal Balls and Presidential Victories

I'm not much of one for politics, particularly the national kind. But I'm much of one for watching trends, shifts in direction and generational influences. So, I'm going to "crystal ball" the presidential elections. I'll be using the Strauss and Howe generational theory and The Fourth Turning as my primary reference info to do so.

OK. Here we are: America is at the end of the end of a cultural mood known as an Unraveling: Feelings of personal optimism are high; feelings of public trust are at their nadir; great politicians can be sunk by one small blunder; even the best of plans are stuck in the mud of compromise by the Silent Gen reign of many decades. The acerbic and long-standing fighting (and very little action other than talk) of the Boomers is getting on pretty much everyone's last nerve. There is, to sum things up, little belief in the power of institutions, little hope that large problems can be solved, but, eh, ya know ... things aren't so bad on the personal front for most people. Sound familiar? That folks is now, and that is an Unraveling Era.

Given that America is just entering into the generational constellation that has, for the past 500+ years of Anglo-Saxon culture, produced a rip-roaring Crisis right at this point, the likelihood that a swift and sudden Crisis will hit soon is high.

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But on to the Crystal Ball. First, the Republicans.

Personally, I ain't feeling the Republicans. I just don't get a vibe on them having much cultural power right now. GenXers (Nomads) lean Republican, but they vote for efficacy and survival -- short-term AND long-term, first. They're also more independent voters than other generations, so don't count on them for towing any party, or the party line.

Crystal Ball #1: The absolute worst choice Americans could make at this time would be McCain. Not because of who he is, but because he was born in 1936, is a Silent Gen, and the current generational constellation is ill-served by Silent leadership. The Silent compromise ethic is NOT what is needed in a Crisis era. While beneficial and necessary in other times, a compromise-oriented leader is a disaster in a Crisis Era.

Crystal Ball #2: Huckabee (1955) actually has more of an edge that would bring swing voters, particularly GenXer parents (Nomads generation parents tend to lean conservative) over to vote for a Republican presidential candidate. Unfortunately, the man just doesn't have "National Leader" stamped on his forehead, and nothing can put it there. Oh well. Sorry, Republicans, I think you're out of this election.

**** Now for the juicy stuff: Da Dems ****

Hmmm, interesting how the Republicans are often referred to by last name, while the dems are by first. Let me go informal here.

Scenario #1: No Crisis (as in THE WHOPPER Crisis that'll last quite a while). If The Crisis doesn't hit before the Democratic National Convention, then Hilary will probably win.

• The Silent Gen (1924 - 1942), honoring sensitivity and their civil rights roots, PLUS needing their information to come from experts, will probably provide a chunk of Hilary voters. While small in size, relative to the other generations, they're 32 million members DO VOTE!
• Boomers, while larger in size at 64 million, are not historically (as a Prophet generation) very active or dependable voters, preferring the spiritual to the political path for deep change.
• Nomads (today's GenXers), while typically not big voters, do become voters (usually conservative) when they have families. And today's GenXers, ages 27-47, and numbering 82 million, are solidly in The Family-raising Years.
• About a third of the 79 or so million Millennials will be of age to vote. Most of them will have Boomer parents. (GenXers will be the parents of most Millennials in high school and below.) Most Millennials will vote, now at least, as their parents do, as they trust adults to make good decisions FOR THEM. As in, for their interests. As Boomers are quite divided politically by the time they reach mid-life and early elderhood, the Millennial vote will probably be a wash now ... not in numbers, but in impact. Just add a notch to whatever side their parents vote on for now. (Later in life, Heroes -- today's Millennial generation -- tend to vote largely Democratic, but that's down the road.)
  

Now, sales professionals know: People buy emotionally and back things up with logic and fact. Without much emotion about the election and the direction of the country (and there ISN'T much emotion or carrying about the public in an Unraveling Era) then Hilary has more of a chance. Why? Because people will vote with their minds and she is a good candidate on paper and logically so for many. Crystal Ball #3: Sans Crisis, Hilary is in. 

Scenario #2: Crisis hits before the Democratic National Convention. Hands down/Crystal Ball #4. Obama. By a landslide.Why? Because he really is the only candidate capable of handling The Crisis. And people feel him when he speaks. They may not like him. They may not find him the most qualified, but he has a tonal quality to his voice that speaks to a capacity to cut through BS, frame issues intelligently and take action, without being stuck of the moral fighting so typical of his next-elder colleagues. And in a Crisis, that's what's needed. Plus, Americans will need someone who can instill hope and offer a vision, and he can do this.

People make decisions first with feelings and intuition ...  support it later with logic. In a Crisis, that feeling-based decision-making process will become clear and dominant. Why? Because a Crisis will accelerate emotions. An Unraveling doesn't. Hilary, qualified as she is, doesn't stir people's hearts. Though she can stimulate their minds. Obama stirs people deep inside ... even if they don't THINK he's the best candidate ... he's the best (currently identified) national leader in a Crisis.

Americans will know, intuitively, from conversations on the street, at work and around town; they will know that he is the one to lead them through these dark times. And so it is. The silver lining of the dark cloud of a Crisis Era is that all the generations are lined up perfectly to come together, unite and evolve into something greater on the other side of the Crisis. Boomers will be in elderhood, providing principled moral leadership. GenXers will be in prime positions of leadership, managing the Crisis for the good of all. Millennials will unite as a can-do, upbeat team (Army?) under their next and next-next elder generations, and the Homeland Gen children will serve their necessary role of being over-protected in an era of adult self-sacrifice.

Such is the Anglo and American history for the last 500+ years; it's a cycle that moves with amazing consistency.

The only question is who will be our president when The Crisis hits? I offer that the answer lies in whether the Crisis -- in whatever man-made form it takes -- hits before the Democratic National Convention or after it.

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If you're local to the B-W area, I'm offering an introductory class on generations: one on Wed and another on Friday. Come. It'll fun.

 

This is, of course, just crystal ball-ing a scenario. I might need some Windex and a soft, linen-free cloth to clean mine up. :-) Rock on.

I'd be quaking if I were Google

The more I use -- and study -- Facebook, the more nervous I'd be if I were at the helm of Google (or a shareholder, for that matter).

See, I use Gmail, even in spite of its creepiness. I love Google's search engine. (Though my love is fading a bit.) I'm thrilled that Google is offering GoogleDocs, and a zillion other services, free to anyone. But Google just has a creepy undertone to me, which I just don't sense when I'm inside Facebook. Facebook is cheerful and bright.

Just one woman's perspective. But I think Facebook is going to shock Google's revenue stream, and the Google campus staff will be scratching its collective head and wondering what happened to their advertising-revenue dominance.

Here's a short piece from The Economist about Google and their growing challenges, real and perceived. It doesn't support my position in any way; I just appreciate how The Economist frames situations.

Fewer Nasty Lawsuits

I'm an advocate of public shame as a tool for encouraging "good citizen" behavior. Sound like a scary creature, do I?

Well, rules don't work for altering or maneuvering behavior. Punishment doesn't either. And common sense and general manners seems to be lacking for many nowadays.

Shame is very powerful, particularly in a "world scene" with rapid information flow. And it's much cheaper than a legal battle in the courts.

Two shame-based incidents crossed my path in the last 24 hours:

The first, the Copyblogger.com writer got all atwitter in believing someone stole his blog design. Rather than going to the person first and asking the "offending party" to address the issue, he used his existing blog to point fingers, name names and threaten a possible lawsuit because he's a lawyer ya know, and he could sue them if he wanted to. (Imagine a guy puffing out his chest now.)

Now, he's all appeased because the offending parties have apologized and are addressing it, and, to his credit, he removed some of the finger-pointing data from his blog. He was even so kind as to close further blog comments because "Enough has been said." (Meaning: he got his way.) He might be right. He might not. Just because he states "facts," doesn't make them so. They make them his perspective.

The second example was a fascinating little Google Adwords ad that popped up on my screen today, saying Avalon Night Club Sucks (or something similar) . I just had to click, as I sensed its purpose. This is fascinating, to me. A vendor/consultant to Avalon Night Club apparently hasn't been paid by the Club and used Google Adwords to draw attention to a website attacking the club. The post ends with --

These are all my opinons (John Nova)  and I am not afflilated with Club Avalon in any way. Nova Enterprises and NightclubVIP.net are not responsible for these opinions as they are of John Nova. Avalon, you want us to remove this page, contact our attorney at 347-612-3520 and make arrangements to pay us. See you in court.

My emphasis with the color and bold.

I'm curious to see if this will work, and if they'll get paid.

Of course, the problem with using shame vs. lawsuits is that folks embroiled to the point where a lawsuit (or public shame) is considered necessary tend to have very different opinions of what went awry in a situation and why. And folks can have a funny tendency to remember only the details which support their case, while conveniently neglecting the details that might make them look like a world-class turd.

In any event, I think shame is an effective tool. And on the predictions side of things, I'd say you can expect to see much more of it.

Just make sure that if you choose to use it, you have all your ducks in a row and have a very clear case. And be careful. Using shame in lieu of a real communication and genuine attempts to mediate a situation may net the desired result, but can also leave a stain behind. Shame can make the shamer more of a tattletale than a mediator. (By the way, I wrote to Mr. Copyblogger, and asked him how he had first approached this problem before posting shameful information on his blog, and he never deigned to reply.)

 

Ebay: An All-American Company

I love eBay. I just love It ... Them ... and the "Thems Who Use It": eBay's robust community of sellers and buyers.

To me, eBay has given  many Americans the dream -- and for more than a few, the reality -- of being "self-made," having their own business and building their dreams of financial success and freedom in a way aligned with their personal passions and pursuits.

I see the eBay system as having energized customer service and the value of doing business with a real person. I have experienced the most stellar service from eBay-ers, sometimes on the smallest of purchases. eBay's accountability system and rating, both of buyers and sellers, has instituted a new norm of civility and manners in conducting business.

It's true, I've encountered a slimeball here and there, particularly in the realm of digital media (software, tutorial DVDs and such), and guess what: I report them, as the eBay system allows, and encourages.

I'm an advocate of Citizen Patrols on the Internet. You can read my post about it here. The short version of my position is that too much crap is being posted and citizens should have the right, the responsibility and the tools to report back to the search engines when a site is utter crap. (I'm speaking of, for example, content aggregator sites that offer no value. I do not believe in censorship based on subject matter. After all, that's one of the reasons the Internet is so fabulous.)

I believe that eBay has provided the most sensible, well-used and respected systems to date for "citizen patrol." Rather than patrolling for content value, eBay patrols where it needs to: in business value. Did the seller deliver as promised? Did a buyer pay on time? Did the seller go out of her way to resolve a misunderstanding? And was the buyer respectful in her request when identifying the misunderstanding? eBay-ers "live and die" by ratings. It's integral to the system. eBay provides the platform. The users patrol, report and value the collective information, experiences and perspectives of the others in the community.

eBay is also a co-parented company (a term I got from Faith Popcorn's book, Eve-olution). eBay became what it is because it's customers wanted it to be more, do more ... and the company listened, responded and gave its users what it wanted.

At this time, I'm not in the stock market, and I don't pay it much mind. But, were it me, I wouldn't want to be holding Amazon.com stock. Why? Seen eBay's new eBay Express? It's eBay for new stuff. New items (and "mostly very new"). No vintage '50s circle skirts here. And, guess what. From what I have observed, no corporate stores. Yes, I can find Banana Republic clothes for sale on EBay Express, but not from BR or The Gap. Nope, such items are only for sale from someone selling them at a small, privately owned store and/or electronic storefront. OK, maybe the clothes are one season off. Fine with me.

eBay's relationship with the small entrepreneur and the ease with which they allow folk to be in business and exposed to a world of customers ... and competitors  is, to me, absolutely All-American!They have taken the much-loved and oft-twisted (particularly when one gets mega corporations, REITs and publicly traded companies involved) concept of a "free market" and it  "democratized" it by creating the tools, the platform and the system for small-time players to participate in the economy at a scale and investment level of their choosing. They lowered the entry barrier to and made real the dream of "owning my own business."

Baseball (or is that soccer, now?), apple pie and eBay. That's my kind of America.

Survivor-style Shows Won't Last for Millennials

I watch TV just enough to observe trends. The other day I caught a snippet of a Survivor-type  show for chefs. The general theme: You ain't no good, sucka! There's only room for one big dog at the top. Die M-F cuz I'm gonna win!

Uh, that may appeal to some folk. Clearly, it does, as people do watch such shows.

But for savvy TV producers and general capitalists who want to --

a) be the next big thing in the Reality TV show world,
b) market specifically to Millenials, and
c) help make the world a better place,

it'd be a good idea to understand a bit about Millennials.See, Millennials like team activities and group-based learning.

So, here's a business concept for reality shows appealing to the next generation:

Rather than a "winner takes all" concept, how 'bout a reality-esque (hey, I made up a new word!) TV show where a big group of Millenials are brought together and given a challenging task. They'd have to identify each other's skills, connect, build teams and accomplish a task. The winners would be the ones who put together the best TEAM, using everyone's skills. And if the goal is for the public good (The Republic), all the better. Really. Works like a charm with them.
 

The game show could include extra mega bonuses for any team that uses technology in an efficient AND social way. They could even get extra points if they managed to work out RELATIONSHIPS with other teams. And, of course, no one really loses in a Millenial's game, so make sure your show has feel-good prizes for all. Better yet: make the show about everyone winning and contributing to the team.

Millenials are a Hero Generation. They want to build things up. (This is not a small point.) They want to "make the world a better place." They are not interested in being King of the Hill. They want to make sure the Hill is well-built and solid, and then they want to have a group activity that is fun, learning-based and technology-rich ... maybe even on TOP of the Hill.

So, program development directors, that's my prediction of where to go ... and, logically, my recommendation.